Idiot's Guide to Brexit 7

During the last week, Parliament stopped even trying to find a majority for any version of Brexit. Theresa May announced on Tuesday that she was reaching across the aisle to try to agree a solution with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. But to noone’s surprise, it was clear following their meetings on Wednesday and Thursday that the aisle is way too wide for them to reach each other, even if both tried, which neither has.

On Friday, May said she would go to Brussels on May 10 to propose that 1) the April 11 Brexit date be postponed again, to June 30;  2) Brexit could happen sooner if something close to Her Deal wins a majority vote in Parliament; and 3) the UK will not participate in the May 23 EU parliamentary elections if a Brexit deal is approved by May 22.

This would remove the April 12 cliff date, giving the government and Parliament more time to muddle. But it’s obvious by now that, so long as Parliament refuses to adopt a knock-out voting procedure, the ayes will only have it when they are voting on a motion to reject something.  

EU leaders will meet in Brussels on May 12. There appears to be no support at all for May’s June 30 extension. The moderates (led by Angela Merkel) may be able to persuade the growing “Nous en avons tous marre!” (we’re all fed up) faction (led by Macron) to cut the UK further slack. But this would be on condition that any further extension should last at least until the end of 2019, and that the UK must hold EU parliament elections on May 23.

The Macronites, however, may say “Assez!” and insist on a hard Brexit at 11 PM on April 12. Since any decision by EU ministers to grant an extension would have to be unanimous, the Macronites a veto.

So May will come back to Parliament on the morning of April 12 facing an April 14^th deadline to figure out what to do. If the Macronites prevail in Brussels on the 11^th, the choice for Parliament will be No Deal or May’s Deal. If the Merkelites prevail, the choice will be No Deal or Long Extension and EU Elections.

Another interesting week!