Idiot's Guide to Brexit 3

What has not changed in the last seven days is the schedule of votes this week: May’s Deal on March 12, and if that fails then No Deal on March 13, and if that fails then extension of the March 29 deadline on March 14.

Another thing that has not changed is the EU’s steadfast refusal to give May any concessions on the Irish backstop. Instead, Michel Barnier said that if the UK isn’t happy with the possibility of being permanently trapped in the EU customs union, the EU will give the UK, except for Norther Ireland, the unilateral right to exit. The EU suggested this last year, buy May rejected it, since it would mean a hard border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland the rest of the UK. This is unacceptable to the 10 MPs from Northern Ireland who form part of May’s coalition government.

Another eddy flowing through the fog has an undetermined number of Brexiteers telling may they will hold their nose and vote for Her Deal if she agrees that she will resign the day after Brexit happens. This strikes me as cynical in the extreme – “we think this is a terrible deal, but we’ll agree if it provides us with a path to power.”

The betting is that May’s Deal will be defeated on the 12^th, No Deal will be defeated on the 13^th, and an extension will be approved on the 14^th . Then what? May admitted this week that she has no idea.  Attention will turn to softer versions of Brexit – the most likely one being Brexit with permanent membership in the EU customs union. There is also growing support for a 2^nd referendum on the choice between May’s Deal or Remain, although some say that No Deal should also be on the ballot.

The votes for a 2^nd referendum are not there yet, but the “People’s Vote” campaign (the banner under which 2^nd amendment supporters have organized) believes the tide will turn after this week’s votes, assuming both May’s Deal and No Deal are defeated.