Idiot's Guide to Brexit 4

Things are simplifying. On March 14, Parliament voted for an extension of unspecified duration by a margin of 210 (out of 650). This means that it’s now down to only two games of chicken.U

The first, between May and the hard Brexiteers (ERG and the Irish Democratic Union Party), will play out on March 19, when she will submit Her (Unchanged) Deal to Parliament for a 3^rd time. The next day, she will meet EU leaders to propose an extension of the March 29 Brexit date.

What May proposes to the EU on March 20 \will depend on what happens in Parliament on March 19. If Her Deal passes, she will ask for a “technical” extension of 2-3 months to allow time to pass implementing legislation, and it will be a no-brainer for the EU to agree.

If she is defeated for a 3^rd time on March 19, May has indicated that she will ask the EU for a much longer extension to allow time for the UK to reconsider, including a possible 2nd referendum.

Actually this indication is a threat, and the strategy is clear. May’s ultimatum is no longer “It’s My Deal or No Deal,” as previously directed at the soft Brexiteers and Remainers. The ultimatum now is “It’s My Deal or Remain,” directed at the hard-Brexiteers.

The ERG and the DUP together have some 70 MPs, all of whom voted against May’s Deal earlier this week. If her threat convinces all of them to blink, the swing vote in her favour on March 19 will be 140 votes, erasing most of the 149 vote margin by which she lost this week.

So March 19^th is another Come to John “Jesus” Bercow moment in Parliament.

All of the chickens we’ve cxounrinf since my first Idiot’s Guide post on February 22 have been MPs in the UK Parliament. If May’s Deal is defeated on the 19^th, we will finally get to count how 27 EU chickens decide to play. It’s unlikely they will agree to a long extension without conditions, but no-one knows what these will be, especially not the 27 EU heads of state themselves.