Idiot's Guide to Brexit

On March 27, the noes had it on 8 different options (May’s Deal not included) that were put to a vote. Second referendum received more than any other, but still lost by 27 votes. Two days later, May put Her Deal (the legal part, but minus the non-binding “political understanding” document that had been appended) to a third vote, and sought to entice support by declaring that she would let someone else take over as Prime Minister if it passed. It lost by a margin of 58. This was not a vote of confidence in May (which is below zero). Rather it was another demonstration that the extremes -- 2 nd  Referendum and Leave With No Deal -- together make a majority against May’s Deal. There will be further attempts on April Fool’s Day to find a majority for one of the options that did well on March 27 (but again excluding May’s Deal). And if a winner emerges, there is then likely to be a runoff between that winner and May’s Deal. Meanwhile on the Continent, Alizee’s 2013 hit  J...

n the days and hours leading up to the vote on May’s deal scheduled for March 19, it looked as if her chickens were finally coming home to roost. Hard Brexiteers were reportedly deserting the barricades and waving white flags to indicate they could hold their nose and support May’s Dea. And some Labour moderates were also looking likely to defy Corbyn’s whip to support May. But the March 19 vote never happened. It was disallowed by the Speaker of the House, John Bercow, who determined that according to a Parliamentary precedent dating back to 1604, the Government cannot submit the same motion to Parliament twice in substantially unchanged form twice. (I comment on the absurdity of this rule at the conclusion of this post.) No-one was more stunned and appalled at Bercow’s manoeuvre than the EU leaders, who had been praying for May’s deal to pass on March 19 so that they could meet her at their summit in Brussels on May 20 to put a final stamp of approval the withdrawal agreeme...

Things are simplifying. On March 14, Parliament voted for an extension of unspecified duration by a margin of 210 (out of 650). This means that it’s now down to only two games of chicken.U The first, between May and the hard Brexiteers (ERG and the Irish Democratic Union Party), will play out on March 19, when she will submit Her (Unchanged) Deal to Parliament for a 3 rd  time. The next day, she will meet EU leaders to propose an extension of the March 29 Brexit date. What May proposes to the EU on March 20 \will depend on what happens in Parliament on March 19. If Her Deal passes, she will ask for a “technical” extension of 2-3 months to allow time to pass implementing legislation, and it will be a no-brainer for the EU to agree. If she is defeated for a 3 rd  time on March 19, May has indicated that she will ask the EU for a much longer extension to allow time for the UK to reconsider, including a possible 2nd referendum. Actually this indication is a threa...

What has not changed in the last seven days is the schedule of votes this week: May’s Deal on March 12, and if that fails then No Deal on March 13, and if that fails then extension of the March 29 deadline on March 14. Another thing that has not changed is the EU’s steadfast refusal to give May any concessions on the Irish backstop. Instead, Michel Barnier said that if the UK isn’t happy with the possibility of being permanently trapped in the EU customs union, the EU will give the UK, except for Norther Ireland, the unilateral right to exit. The EU suggested this last year, buy May rejected it, since it would mean a hard border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland the rest of the UK. This is unacceptable to the 10 MPs from Northern Ireland who form part of May’s coalition government. Another eddy flowing through the fog has an undetermined number of Brexiteers telling may they will hold their nose and vote for Her Deal if she agrees that she will resign the day after Br...

In the seven days since my first  Idiot’s Guide  post, several eyelids have fluttered, but no-one has blinked outright. They first flutter came from Teresa May on February 25, when she announced a new plan: on March 12, she will put a revised version of Her Deal up for a vote. If it fails to pass, then on March 13 she will put motion to leave with No Deal up for a vote. If that fails, then on March 14 she will put a motion to extend the March 29 deadline up for a vote (she did not say how long the extension should be). This was the first time May has indicated she would go along with an extension if Parliament won’t approve any of the alternatives. May’s flutter made a non-event of the February 27 vote in Parliament demanding an extension of the March 29 Brexit deadline. The new plan was enough to persuade many MPs who had been ready to vote to extend on February 27 to abstain instead. Supporters nevertheless put the motion forward, but it was defeated. Also on F...