Idiot's Guide to Brexit 2

In the seven days since my first Idiot’s Guide post, several eyelids have fluttered, but no-one has blinked outright.

They first flutter came from Teresa May on February 25, when she announced a new plan: on March 12, she will put a revised version of Her Deal up for a vote. If it fails to pass, then on March 13 she will put motion to leave with No Deal up for a vote. If that fails, then on March 14 she will put a motion to extend the March 29 deadline up for a vote (she did not say how long the extension should be). This was the first time May has indicated she would go along with an extension if Parliament won’t approve any of the alternatives.

May’s flutter made a non-event of the February 27 vote in Parliament demanding an extension of the March 29 Brexit deadline. The new plan was enough to persuade many MPs who had been ready to vote to extend on February 27 to abstain instead. Supporters nevertheless put the motion forward, but it was defeated.

Also on February 27, Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of support for  his version of Brexit -- a a permanent customs union. This, too was defeated. Corbyn then surprised by announcing that Labour would vote against May’s deal on March 12, and would instead support a 2^nd referendum. This was the first time Corby has indicated he could support a 2^nd referendum. He has suggested the choices should be Remain or a “reasonable Brexit.”

Meanwhile, the ERG also fluttered, suggesting that it might be willing to support May’s Deal on March 12 if new letters are exchanged with the EU containing assurances that the backstop will not be permanent, but only if the language persuaded the UK Attorney General to reverse his previously-stated opinion that May’s Deal could result in the UK being permanently trapped in the EU customs union.

Finally, there has been a faint flutter in Brussels, where Michel Barnier, the lead EU Brexit negotiator, stated that he is working with the UK Attorgney General on a “joint interpretive instrument” as an addendum to the 526 page exit agreement reached between the EU and the May government at the end of last year. This could result in something that satisfies the ERG’s condition for supporting May on March 12.

However, even if the ERG does fall in line with May, the vote on March 12 will be close. If the deal is approved, May will have to ask the EU for a 30-60 day extension to give Parliament time to pass implementing legislation. The EU is almost certain to agree to this.

However, if May’s Deal is defeated on March 12 and No Deal is defeated on May 13 and Parliament votes to ask for an extension on May 14, then on the Ides of March the EU may ask “what for?” (Macron is already asking this.) 

As I said in my previous post, the only answer they are very likely to accept is “a 2^nd referendum.”  But as of now, no more than 20% of MPs say they support a 2^nd referendum. Perhaps then, if the EU says they will only grant an extension for a 2^nd referendum, that will swing enough Parliamentary support behind May’s Deal for it finally to pass.